BY Professor Hoodbhoy.
Thousands of fanatical followers led by the cleric-cricketer combination of Tahir-ul-Qadri and Imran Khan have been holding Islamabad hostage now for one month. Business and government stand disrupted, the state visit of China’s president was postponed, and normal life has been suspended in parts of the city. The duo claims that the national elections held 15 months ago were rigged and must be redone. Both want to morally cleanse Pakistan, and promise to make milk and honey flow. Neither has a plan, but their followers don’t seem to care.
From the shadows, the Pakistan Army – an institution known all too well to the Baluch and Bengalis – has, with uncharacteristic calm, watched Pakistan’s state institutions taken over by violent thugs. But rather than restore law-and-order, it chose to confer legitimacy on the insurgents by advocating negotiations. The brief takeover of Pakistan Television by PAT/PTI agitators did not result in any subsequent punitive action; the occupiers left shouting “Pak Fauj Zindabad”.
What’s the game plan here? Cricketer Khan’s is clear enough: create enough chaos so that the elected government can be forcibly overthrown. Subsequently, it will not be difficult to find a pliant Supreme Court judge who would favor mid-term elections. Then, perhaps with a little reverse rigging, he would be hurled towards what he sees as his rightful destiny – becoming the prime minister of Pakistan. The goals of the mercurial Holy Man from Canada are less clear; keeping the pot vigorously stirred is all that we’ve seen so far.
Now for the good news: the people of Pakistan wisely refuse to support this violent destruction of government. Popular opinion today roots for stability and calm. In an unprecedented display of unity, the PML-N and PPP, Pakistan’s two largest political parties, announced they are on the same page. A minor miracle is that left-wing views, such as those of the Awami Workers Part and the Woman’s Action Forum, coincide on this matter with the right-wing opinions of Maulana Fazlur Rahman and the Jamaat-e-Islami!
Of course, the consensus goes no further. Justifiably, there is criticism of Nawaz Sharif’s naked nepotism and the appointment of his family members to important posts. Justifiably, people dislike the Sharif brothers’ style of personalized governance. And, justifiably, there is a call for electoral reform, as well as to protest last year’s partially rigged elections.
This is clearly a right-versus-right tussle. But, while we on the Left don’t have a dog in the fight, it is one that requires progressive Pakistanis to think through the consequences. I would argue that the government of Nawaz Sharif, rotten as it is, should not buckle in and should not resign.
First, allegations of rigging appear to be over-amplified by the losers. In the 2013 elections, national and international observers saw nothing extraordinary. Nor did I, while standing in line to vote. Moreover, the outcome was consistent with pre-election polls. But this clearly did not flatter the cricketer’s super-sized ego. He had hoped for more than just a provincial government. Now, through means fair or foul, he wishes to capitalize upon the army’s distaste for Nawaz Sharif and refuses to take his chances at the ballot box four years away.
It shall be a grim day for Pakistan should Cricketer Khan become Prime Minister Khan. Khan had openly supported the Taliban even under the brutal occupation of Swat in 2009, or when they shot 14-year old Malala Yusufzai in the head for wanting to go to school. Khan went into a frenzied fit after the killing of Osama bin Laden, declaring him a shaheed. He again threw a tantrum after TTP supremo Hakimullah Mehsud was killed by a US drone, making it clear that he would rather shoot at drones than terrorists.
Whether out of a serious perceptual disorder or political ambition or to atone for his raunchy past, year after year Cricketer Khan has sided with those who have been blowing up our children’s schools, killing Pakistan’s citizens, police, and soldiers. This is why the Taliban chose him as one of their representatives in the failed peace talks, and why he carries the nick-name of Taliban Khan.
Pakistan’s two wannabe messiahs promise a new Pakistan, and their gullible followers have swallowed it. Protesters interviewed on TV channels speak of a Naya Pakistan where nobody will have to pay electricity bills, and where all will have jobs of choice. They do not ask how, choosing to live in a fool’s paradise instead. None is willing to face the fact that governance in KPK is no better after the PTI’s year long stint in power.
Worse yet, Khan has had nothing to say about the horrific targeting of Pakistan’s religious minorities, or the use of the blasphemy law to terrify them. Pakistan’s Christians cannot forget his callous remarks after the Peshawar church bombing one year ago. While the Model Town tragedy is to be roundly condemned, the Khan-Qadri duo is silent about the hundreds who have either gone missing in Baluchistan, or were later found in mass graves.
Alarmed that the protest is petering out, the duo has renewed appeals for reinforcements. It is unlikely that this will happen, but certainly their circus has gone too far in disrupting the capital’s life. Therefore, if persuasion does not work the use of a minimum amount of force will be entirely legitimate. Islamabad’s citizens have rights which the agitators are violating, and which the state is obliged to protect.
Islamabad’s vulnerability now stands twice exposed. The first time was in 2007 when the Lal Masjid clerics went on a rampage, declared rebellion against the state, and imposed their brand of sharia on Islamabad. It took the lives of a dozen Pak Army commandos to defeat them. Hundreds, including children, died. More significantly, it began a new era of suicide attacks on marketplaces, public squares, police stations, and army installations. Since the time, around 30,000 lives have been lost.
What of the future? In the years ahead, this pair may become irrelevant. But with the dangerous precedent they have established, hard-line clerics disaffected with the army’s betrayal, and operations such as Zarb-e-Azb, may give the call to occupy. The marching orders could also come from Caliph Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi of ISIS or some other radical leader; their literature is already being circulated around. Thereafter, from the hundreds of madrassas in and around the city, charged mobs armed to the teeth will pour out to fulfill their holy duty. Nuclear Pakistan would have the world sitting on edge.
The author teaches physics in Lahore and Islamabad. The present article has been updated gfrom the version published in Dawnon 06-09-2014
source: http://viewpointonline.net/2014/09/vp218/the-siege-of-islamabad-what-next/3938-the-siege-of-islamabad-what-next#.VBp13s3anMY.facebook
